NetPicks e-Mini Futures LIVE

Another tough day ends slightly positive on ER2 in the AM. We took 3 trades, winning 2 of 3 but only managed a +.2 gain, which did, by the way, push us back up to within a few short ticks of our long term equity highs.

We also eeked out a 2 point gain on the NQ, also following 2 winners and 1 loss.  On ES, we had one winner and one loss for a net -2.5 points.  UMT members were able to pick up a 3rd winning trade to full target and a positive result on the session, after we had already broke for the morning.

Very little volume and not much follow thru set the tone for our pm session.  While we were able to scratch out a positive session again on NQ, picking up another 2 out of 3 trades for another +2 points, +4 points on the day, the ER2 got us into a trade that from the start, looked like it had a chance to make its target.  It stalled at the swing/day high and pulled back into its channel.  Taking heat, we had to sweat it out as it came very close to our stop, prior to bouncing back up again.  Ultimately though it pulled back down close to our stop.

We then got a short set up, a few ticks above our stop and a tough decision needed to be made to either take the set up and cut the loss on the long position, reversing to short or, adjust the entry of the short down to the original stop of the long we were still in, thus protecting our long.  The last thing we wanted was to get triggered short, only to see the market then, head higher.  It would have been a 4 tick adjustment but also would have adjusted around important support.  That was what I ultimately decided to call.  It did break down however, triggering us in and then going to its full target.  We grabbed an extra tick, while some were able to take two extra ticks beyond the target.  That trade wasn’t enough to get us positive on the session so we took the next short, which managed to get 70% to its target objective then pulled back hard.

Upon another test of that swing low, I lowered stops locking in 3 ticks to prevent the trade from turning into a loss.  It did stop us out and continued to pull higher, so the 3 ticks were all that we could get out of that trade, although some were more aggressive at exiting with slightly more profit.

None the less, we ended the day -1.2 on ER2.  A very tough session with not such a terrible result.  There were no additional trades on ES.

We only got one ER2 trade off this morning and it was a fairly fast winner.  We got to within 3 ticks of T on 3 seperate bars which had us battening down the hatches.  We grabbed a partial profit of .8 points.  Some traders held out and the trade did hit its full target.

ES hit two nice reversal targets for +6 points.  NQ continues to struggle with four losses and a negative -12 points.  We are currently waiting for FOMC minutes to begin our PM Session.

We have the big +100 in our sights.  It’s not a question on if it will happen, only when.  Hopefully this week, but it really doesn’t matter.  Remaining desciplined is the key to success and our system keeps us on the winning track so long as we do.  This morning we enjoyed a very fast and painless 2.4 pnt winner.  Our 2nd trade got to 3 ticks of target then snapped back pretty hard and fast in front of Existing Home sales.  Some traders grabbed a nice profit.  We let the trade have a little more room and only grabbed 3 ticks on the trade.  No matter.  We took +2.7 on the session.  I’ll take that everyday, thank you very much!!  That’s what broke us above +90 for the first time and new equity highs again, on ER2.

NQ had us waiting nearly 90 minutes before giving us our first trade.  We grabbed two quick ones in a row, right before quitting for the morning.  Net result this am was:  +7 points.  Nothing on ES this morning. 

We are still in August and are maintaining our “lower expectations” stance on the market.  It has served us well, allowing us to quit positive on most sessions which is our overall goal in the room.

The pm session turned out to be a real yawn.  No ER2 or ES trades and NQ had three trades that just didn’t have enough in them to make it to their target.   So we lost all three and ended the day down -6 points.

A tough week for NQ and relatively flat on ES but ER2 takes the prize this week with a nifty +12.7 points and 87.4 total net points on all trades called.  We are a couple winners shy of +90 and another good week could have us breaking the +100 point level.  100 points equals $10,000 per contract and those are real results, based on real live trades called in the room.

We only had 4 losing trades out of 17 trades called in ER2 this week.  A great week again, following the difficult week that came before.  This has been so typical of the ER2.  Traders get shaken out on a tough week that could lose 10 points for example.  Then, the following week we erase those lossed completely, and add net profit.  But those that got shaken out and quit, or didn’t trade the system got smacked bad with the losses and then were left in the dust, holding on to their losses as experienced traders traded their way back into profits.

That’s how winning systems work.  There are always drawdowns.  Our system continues to put the odds in our favor on every single trade we take and ultimately, the odds work for us (our edge) and the wins catch up and eclipse the losses.  The last two weeks of trading is a great example of that dynamic.  You can expect it to happen like that, over and over again.  And that’s fine.  One step back to get us two steps forward. 

As long as we keep trading, we will pass the 100 point level and will at some point, in the not too distant future, begin to hone in on the 200 point level.  And on and on and on we trade.  Are you going to be there with us?  If so, then don’t fear the losing trades.  Don’t fear the drawdown periods.  The system works.  Do you? 

Only by trading the system will you get to the 200 point level and beyond.  If you keep trying to avoid the losses, you will avoid the winning trades and you will not be trading the system.  Will you get to 200 net points on your own?  Have you been able to before?  Why are you trading the room?  Know your reason for trading.  I bet that if you examine it carefully, you will find that your reason for trading is not to “win this trade.”  It is to “win at trading.”  Think about it.

Tough trading again and I really can’t wait to see August in our rear view mirrors.  ER2 actually would have ended positive if just strictly sticking to the system.  It got close on two out of three trades, having many of us tightening stops and locking in partial profits.  We also took a loss on the 2nd trade.  So I’m posting the am results as a net loss of -1.6, by staying consistent to how I trade the room.  Anyone strictly sticking to the system would be up about +1.1. 

ES had a nice reversal trade that got to two ticks of Target.  Some were more aggressive, but when the market pulled back, I stopped out with 25% of my profit objective, again staying consistent.  Result was +1 pnt.

NQ gave us ample opportunity to stop with Poq and over +7 points with an optional trade.  I called a few more optional trades which were all losses, although one did get to within 3 ticks of target so some took a little bit on that one.  For me, it just wasn’t close enough on a small trade profile.  The net result on all the trades called this am on NQ was -3.25.  Poq again, showing its consistent merit.

As was the case today, after a hard session yesterday, we had a great session.  Early on in the am, we hit two ER2 winners in a row (+3.9), a nice ES winner (+3.75), and a winning session on NQ too (+3.25).  NQ required a bit more effort, but gave us a positive outcome.  Nice to be positive on all three markets again.

The pm gave us a nice big beautiful winner on the ER2 when we decided to quit for the day, up +7.3.

Grabbed a partial on ES as it hit its natural target, but since I made a 2 tick adjustment, I was going for 2 extra ticks.  I had to take my eye off of it for a moment as the NQ required some fancy footwork.  I took +1.5 on that trade, while other traders in the room would have been more aggressive, grabbing at least +2.5.  Net on the day for ES was +5.25.

 Again, NQ made us work extra hard but finally finished the PM and the day positive with +5.25.

August  has been tough, especially for ER2, but we’re getting through it.  There have been some highlights though.  As hard as it was today, those managing to catch the trades as called, ended the day only -.4 points (4 ticks) on ER2.  We are up on the week so far.

The NQ, after a nice day yesterday, gave us a tough one today.  We hit our all time equity high, the big 200 points milestone yesterday (Monday), but today we gave some of it back.  Net on the day was -15.5 and one of our worst days on NQ.  Still though, we made it to 200 and will soon have it in our rear view mirror as we set our sights on 300 net winning points.

There haven’t been a lot of ES trades so far this month, indicative of a slow market.  We need movement for our timeframe (610 tick) to get overbought and oversold, which is the prerequisite to our signature reversal set up that is still hitting about 70% of the time.  We managed to get a few of them off this month but not many.  We lost two of them today which is rare.  UMT traders could have taken the third trade that set up prior to lunch in the late morning on there own, since we had already broke for the morning session.  Net on today was: -10.5.

While it’s true the ER2 delivered us a drawdown this week, the +4.4 we grabbed to end the week today, Friday, helped out a lot.  We won 4 out of 5 today, which should not really come as too big of a surprise after taking a few days of losses.  The week still ended down -10.9 but it is completely survivable and we are poised for the next run up to our 100 point milestone.  It’s going to happen.

The ES ended this tough week of very few trades positive, +5.75.  Today’s 2 winners in a row certainly helped. We grabbed +6.75. 

NQ, despite a set back here and there, was able to win 4 in a row this morning.  We didn’t take any pm trades.  We posted a respectable week’s result with +26.25 points.  We are just one winning trade away, 2.75 points, from the big 200 point milestone in just 6 weeks of trading.  This powerful market and timeframe doesn’t seem to let up and we excited to keep trading NQ.

I’ll post the past couple week’s worth of trades over the weekend.

I will be recapping the week over the weekend.  It’s been a tough week so far for the ER2.  We are definitely in a step backwards phase.  The good news is that whenever we see this kind of action, a strong snap back typically follows shortly thereafter.  We’ve seen this before.  It’s part of the personality of the ER2.

As of this writing, the ES is basically flat at -.25.

NQ is actually ahead +12.25 so far this week.

 Tomorrow is options expiration which could present some problems to cap off the week.  We’ll see..

A hard morning again for the ER2 works itself out with 2 out of 3 winners in the pm session and a net loss of just 1 point.  We are down 5 points for the week on a no news August summer trade zone.  This week is options expiration too.  We know though that the ER2 will wake up and post a series of winners that will launch us forward to new equity highs before too long.

Meanwhile we finally got a trade off on ES.  It got to 1 tick of its natural target and 3 ticks to its adjusted target.  Managing this trade as per our typical method, we would have taken 1.5 points which is what we are posting as our result.  It’s the only trade so far this week.  But late in the session we did have another set up that triggered in for those who wanted to hold a high percentage trade over night.  We don’t officially track those in this room but last I checked it had moved to within one point of its Target.

The NQ continues to be the champion in August, despite a few tough sessions.  Today again, we finish positive with +10.75 points.  We’ll be busting through the 200 net point level any time now, maybe even tomorrow, as we are sitting at +187.3 points now in less than 6 weeks of trading.  Wow!  In fact, I was surprised to see that one of our set ups, the “deep pullback” trade, has won 10 out of the last 11 set ups for a 90.9% win rate since July 2nd.  NQ is winning just shy of 2/3s of all its trades over the past 220 trades; 139 wins to 81 losses and a net positive $3745 per contract since breaking this exciting market into the room July 2nd. 

We anticipate this kind of success will continue as our strategy is a dynamic self adjusting strategy, tuning itself to the immediate current market conditions.  I’ll be posting all the trades since the last post probably this weekend.