Russell eMini Futures; New Equity Highs Reached Again

July 1st, 2009

We had another great session today, reaching new all time equity highs on our Russell strategy, trading the UMT Core with a 233 tick chart.  Those who have been keeping tabs on our blog and trade results know that this has been a bread and butter trade since we introduced it back to our trade room, Jan 27th.  But also, it has been a steady performer since it’s inception, over two years ago. 

 Although there were very few trades called today, our over all trade room win rate is on a tear, with 15 out of the last 18 emini trades called being winners, not counting our practice US 30 TBond trade, which has also had its share of winners.  The Nasdaq emini only produced one trade which was a tiny loss for – 1.75 today.  It was an uncharacteristic day for the NQ but that can happen sometimes and it’s no big deal. We just didn’t get our normal set-ups today and that in itself is an example of the system working.  We never want to force something that isn’t there.  The system is designed to put the odds in our favor on every set-up we take and if there is no set-up we stand down.  Common sense goes a long way in putting the winning edge on your side.

Tomorrow will be the last day of trading for us as we roll into the 4th lf July weekend.  I hope everyone enjoys their 3 day weekend.

Please see the below posts for information on signing up for the Ultimate Swing Trader.  Get your copies while they are still available.  It is close to selling out.  Also, I have had a lot of interest in our European Live Training that is being secheduled for late October/early November.  I am hearing rumors that some new great stuff will be revealed to the attendees along with some valuable ‘free’ trade methodologies!! 

Could it be a free life time license to the UMT Core, along with one-on-one training?  They haven’t told me yet but I suspect that to be the case, and more!  If so, you could plan a vacation to Europe (Paris, London, Amsterdam), write it off, and basically have much of the costs offset since the UMT Core is valued at $3500!  Give it serious thought.  We’re going to have a lot of fun and the information will be 2nd to none.  If you are interested in securing your seat, send me an email at tjnoon@netpicks.com.

LIVE Training in Europe!!

June 30th, 2009

We will be hosting an exclusive live training in Europe either near the end of October or early November.  Keep your eyes open for details.  This event will surely sell out so if you are interested, you can email me at tjnoon@netpicks.com to be put on the priority list.

A Winning Formula; 13 out of the Last 14 Trades – Winners!

June 30th, 2009

The winning formula includes tough losing trades.  It includes an occasional losing or fairly flat week once in a while, too.  After a tough week last week, this week has been a dream to trade with nearly every trade winning.  We even got 80% to target on the one and only trade that wound up losing but then came back with a slow patient winning trade that gave us our Power of Quitting today on the Russell emini 233 Tick.  We also achieved a new equity high again with that last trade.  Just read back a couple of posts and you will see how the one step back, once again, became another two steps forward and our equity curve continues to grow to the right. 

Even on a monthly scale you can see the two steps forward, one step back in action. We ended April, a month that hardly had a losing session up + 38.8 points.  May was tougher but we still ended up +17 points.  June was harder still.  We finished the month up +11.5, which excludes the two winners on FOMC Wednesday, last week.   Still though, counting the 2 FOMC winners, the Russell 233 with the core has won 21 of the last 30 trades — and, new equity highs again!

The Russell emini 292 share bar with UMT Advanced Tactics also winning two in a row today and getting close to its equity high.  IN fact, after a tough step backwards, we have won the last 5 trades in a row and the last 7 out of 9.  While we finished last week a tiny bit negative, – 1.8 since we didn’t count the FOMC day winners, we still ended a very tough month of June up +20.2 points!

Our Nasdaq emini trading has been perfect this week two.  4 trades called, 4 trades won!  It too has put a tough week behind it.  We are up +15.25 in just two days and we hit an all time equity high again today.  This on the heels of a tough Friday and a negative week, if not counting the 2 winners during the FOMC session.  The NQ probably was our best performer in June though, posting a stellar +55 net points (+62.50 if we counted the FOMC winners.)  During a difficult month of trading, that’s rather incredible.  A $5,000 account would have added 22% growth trading just 1% or less per trade (excluding trade costs).  With a normal 2% position size, the account would have grown around 40%!!  In one month!  Those are NOT annualized returns.  Those are monthly returns only!!!

We continue to call good winning trades on both the 30 year Tbond futures contract and the Dow (YM) emini.  Today we had winners across the board and those trades were no different.  We’ll ride this wave up until we slip into another one step back..  It is the way it works.  It is the winning formula!

Get UST and Free Money Management Software

June 29th, 2009

Get your copy of the Ultimate Swing Trader while it is still available here.

Get your FREE money management software here.

eMini Futures Hand us a Perfect Session Today

June 29th, 2009

Today, our eMini Futures trading was perfect with all winners across the board.  This, on the heels of a difficult prior session.  No surprise there!  Just to quickly recap, we won two short trades on our Russell emini 233 tick with the UMT Core for a nifty +3.6 points.  That put us very close to our all time equity highs.

Our other Russell emini, the 292 sharebar using UMT Advanced Tactics, also staged a perfect session with a short and then a long trade.  We netted a very attractive +3.9 which not only competely erased last week’s losses, but also put us up by an equal amount.  In other words, from the beginning balance of last Monday, we were down -1.8 by the end of Friday.  After today, we are UP +1.9 from last Monday’s opening balance.  On just two trades!  Pretty cool, huh?

Same with the Nasdaq emini. We ended the week down -8.5 points.  Today, we gained it nearly, all the way back, picking up a strong +8 points on just two trades.

That’s how it works.  Two steps forward and new equity highs in sights across the board.  I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s session.

Get your copy of the Ultimate Swing Trader while it is still available here.

Get your FREE money management software here.

Emini Russell and Nasdaq Sitting Just Below Equity Highs Despite a Tough Week..

June 28th, 2009

We had a hard week for sure.  Friday was particularly tough as we ended down on our three main strategies.  Still though, as I often say, we have to mind our forest from above and not get too caught up amongst the trees (the individual trades and trade sessions).  Here’s why:

Russell emini 233 Tick with UMT Core had to trade through 5 trades and wound up Friday down by 1 point.  To put salt on the wound, earlier in the week, we only practice traded the FOMC Wednesday which would have resulted in 2 perfect winners.  We would have finished the week up + 6.7 which is not bad.  Instead we ended the week up + 3.3.  BUT, we ended the week up!  The fact is, we are sitting a few trades below our all time equity highs.  Not to sound like a broken record but I’ll risk it anyway — Keep things in perspective.

Russell 292 Share bar with Advanced Tactics also had a hard week.  Especially Friday.  We ended the session down – 2.9.  In fact, we lost 3 out of 4 sessions this week and like the 233, FOMC day would have produced 2 perfect trades and the most productive session of the week, had we traded it for + 3.2.  Instead, we did end the week down, -1.8.  Is that such a big deal?  We have won 85.7% of all weeks traded since we introduced this strategy to the room, Feb 2nd.  We are a few good trades below our equity highs as well.  In fact, this past week we dropped a few points below 100.  Anyone think we won’t get past it?  I’d be putting my money on 200 net points before too long.  You heard it first, right here – in this post!  Will you be on board for the drive to our next +100 winning points?  It’s going to happen with our without you.  I’d prefer it to be with you.

Nasdaq 144 tick also struggling.  Again, a tough Friday. We were up throughout the week and the practice FOMC session would have produced a nifty perfect score with 2 winners, no losses and +7.75 points.  Instead, we’ll take a small bruise to the shins and a -8.5 points on the week.  But we still have our legs and we are right below our equity highs.  We have won 75% of all our days and 81.8% of all our weeks since April 13th when we introduced the strategy to the room.  Had we counted FOMC this past Wednesday, we would have only been down 3/4 of 1 point, just 3 ticks on the week.  Can we please keep it in perspective?  Our veteran traders know this already but I repeat the perspective thing for those who have not yet witnessed or experienced the grand scope of what we’re doing.  In short, we are moving our equity curves up at a nice 45 degree angle to the right, with a one step back and then a 2 steps forwards dynamic, over and over and over … 

The one step back is part of the winning formula.  You can not divorce the two.  You’re better off embracing it as a natural function of your doing business.  Whether you embrace it or not won’t make a difference to anyone or anything (including the markets) but you.  You’ll either embrace it and prosper, if you keep to our design, or, you won’t embrace it and you’ll lose your money.  The choice is yours alone to make.  When you finally do decide to embrace it, you will finally see your account begin to grow, two steps foward, one step back, two steps forward, one step back.. 

I’m looking forward to Monday’s session.

Trading Through Fed Events; or NOT..

June 25th, 2009

Deciding to trade emini futures during Fed events is a very important and personal question.  Each trader should give it serious consideration regardless of what one ultimately decides.  The last two FOMC statement sessions, we decided to go into ‘practice’ mode only.  The result was two winning sessions where nearly every trade hit its full target and poq would have been achieved.  Of course, other times the opposite was true.  So, what is the best decision to make for an ongoing rule?

The simple answer is that you have to revert back to your research.  If you had been doing your vigorous back testing, straight through each session, regardless of fed events or even economic reports, then your statistical data that you achieved would have reduced all those events into the results.  How did you do?  If you then decide to discretionarily ’sit-out’ of those sessions in real, live trading, then you would actually be trading a different plan; one ‘other’ than what you have back tested.  Perhaps you should go back and delete all the trades out of a copy of your spread sheet that you would normally sit out on under real life trading.  Then, compare the difference.

There is no easy answer here.  Our results for the week would be a whole lot better if we included yesterday’s practice trades, but that would be cheating, since I made the statement that we were in practice mode only.  You can’t have your cake and eat it too if you want to keep track of accurate results.  Skipping out on fed event sessions is NOT a bad rule to have in your trade plan.  You need to be honest and true with it though and don’t regret if you lose out on a stellar session like yesterday’s.  Remember all the choppy sessions that you would have also avoided.

The big point to this post is that if you are going to base a trade plan on your research (back testing), then you should consider fed days, Bernanke testimonies, major economic reports into your back testing so that it reflects how you will actually be trading live.  It’s more work and harder to do, but it will give you the info you really do require for a well thought out trade plan.  Or, to think of it in another way:  Garbarge in.. garbage out..

I will be posting the spread sheets with all the trades called so far this year in the trade room.  Stay tuned for that.  We’ve had a one step back in some of our markets and a small hit to our overall winning percentage but our net profits are sitting  just below our equity highs on all our markets and timeframes.  

Here are some important announcements:

  • I will be available to do a live training in Europe near the end of October, early November.  Anyone interested should let me know right away. 
  • I am taking sign-ups for another boot camp in beautiful Napa.  The date is flexible.  I can work around your schedule.  I only take 3 at a time so it is a very upclose, and intensive training. 
  • I will also schedule a mini-bootcamp for the Trader’s Expo in Las Vegas, either in August or November if anyone is interested.  Let me know.

Here are some links:

TJ’s Boot Camp 

Get the UMT Original (Core) Now While it is Still on the Market Here. 

Get UMT Information here.

Sign up for FREE webinar here.

Sign up for UMT (Cheapest Option) Here

Sing up for UMT (Payment Plan Option) Here 

UMT FX LIVE training has begun and is available.  Download your FREE video trading report, “The Insider’s Guide to Achieving the Trading Edge and find out about Netpicks’ exciting new FX LIVE here.

TF 233 UMT Core Poq Page

Successful Emini Futures Trading; Taking the Hard Trades..

June 17th, 2009

To be successful as a emini futures trader, you will be faced with tough, hard decisions at every twist and turn.  We have seen that over and over again.  Let’s face it.  Trading is NOT easy and anyone who told you otherwise was being less than truthful.

June has been a month of wild swings, tough trades, lots of chop and tight ranges, new equity highs, big breakouts, false breakouts, worst sessions of the year, and an overall combination of some very tough trades, hard decisions and gut-check stick-to-it-ness.  In short, one could have really run into trouble if one was not secure and strongly committed to a well researched and thought out trade plan.  If you were winging it, well, perhaps you did good, perhaps you didn’t.  Chances are, you got slaughtered.  If you did do well, hopefully you know why and it wasn’t just good luck, although that is always nice to have.

We hit new equity highs again on the Russell this month.  Then we hit some tough sessions.  We went one step back, for sure.  Maybe even two.  The thing to keep in mind is that we’re taking a step back from a much higher equity level than we were at the last time we took one step back.  I guarantee you that we will go two steps forward and break out to new equity highs yet again. 

Same thing with the Nasdaq emini.  Two days ago, we broke to new equity highs.  Yesterday though, was one of the worst sessions to date.  The market plays nasty practical jokes on us it seems.  We got to within one tick of our full target on two early trades.  One more tick on each, and we would have quit positive again, and had another new equity high.  But as you may or may not know, we stick to our trade plan and try to give the trade enough room to hit its full target objective.  Afterall, that’s what got us to the new equity highs in the first place.  It just so happens, that these two trades couldn’t make it.  We stopped out with very small partial profits.  Then, we hit some consecutive losses.  That is always a possible outcome and it WILL happen sometimes.

Today, we hit two winners in a row and we were done.   Just like that.  Did we make back all our losses from yesterday? No..  But we don’t have to.  We’re going to new highs again.  For sure!  And, believe it or not, even though we had a tough session yesterday, we are still positive this week.  Our winning percentage took a kick to the shins, but not our overall equity.  We still have our legs and those legs will carry us to new highs again. 

Tough sessions will come and go.  Then they will come again.  So will the winning streaks though.  Don’t forget that.  The losses are part of the winning formula.  The sooner you surrender to that notion, the sooner you will be able to achieve the reason that you’re trading in the first place.  To make money!

Nasdaq emini Futures Keeps on Rolling, New Equity Highs Reached Again..

June 10th, 2009

The Nasdaq eMini Futures contract we are trading keeps on rolling and has been very profitable for us.  We are 1 point shy of our first net 100 points.  Considering we are trading a fast 144 tick chart and taking small trades with an average risk of just 2 points (give or take) — and — the fact that we are quitting with our power of quitting rules, gaining 100 net points in such a fast amount of time is a true testiment to just how effective the UMT is, when combined with poq.  We only just began trading it April 13th!  It may not sound like much, but 100 points is $2000. 

What’s more is that anyone with a $5000 account could have done that by trading just one contract and risking less than 1% per trade.  Now, go ahead and put on 2% risk and you would have gained about 80% (before commission and costs) in less than 2 months!  Even if you factored in the worst case scenario, and added a full $10 per trade per contract to cover costs, you still would be up 40% or so in less than two months on very minimal trading. Net!  Moreover, the NQ would have forced you to have become an expert trader by now, due to it’s fast ‘keep you on your toes’ personality.  How much value is that?

I might suggest at this point to actually look at a higher time frame.  Not too much.  Maybe a 200 tick or 233 perhaps.  Make sure you test it thoroughly.  By going to a slightly higher time frame, you should get slightly larger trade profiles.  If you find a time frame hitting better the 60% of the time (the 144 is currently at 62.5% with 104 trades) the trade costs would represent a smaller percentage and your net would be quite a bit higher.  It’s certainly worth looking into, I think.   Trading the 144 is a great way to master the system.  You can grow your account while not getting hurt too badly when you make the inevitable mistakes.  But consider stepping it up a bit once you get it down.

After a nice winning streak, and hitting all new equity highs on Monday, the Russell 233 tick UMT Core put in its worst performance this year, the very next day, yesterday.  I know that some of you were freaking out over that.  If you are still stuck amongst the trees, then I could see why.  We must elevate ourselves above and remember we WILL always have days where we sacrifice trees but from higher up, we can clearly see our forest growing despite that.  Today, we hit two winners and no losses.  It required expert precision to catch the 2nd trade but hey!!  That’s trading.  No one ever said it was easy.  We gained back nearly half of yesterday’s losses and in fact, we are positive for the week, by 1 tick.  Are we freaking out?  Are you?  I sure hope not.  We’re going to new highs again.  Any doubters?

The Russell 292 Sharebar AT did hit new equity highs today.  We only took one trade for a nice +2.1.  We are just 3.4 points shy of our first net 100 points on this chart as well.  We have a treasure chest and we are unlocking it on a consistent basis in our trade room.  Soon I will post all trades so far for 2009.  If you’re new, you can look on the Dec 29th post to view all 2008 trades.  Hopefully, that will give you the confidence and encouragement to get with our program and follow it as intended.  You too will be hitting new equity highs, with us, over and over again.  Or, you could keep doing what you’re doing.  That’s fine too.  Isn’t it?

Over the next couple days I’ll be hosting my boot camp.  Coach Ron Weiland will be covering the trade room.  He seems to bring the midas touch whenever he fills in so I believe everyone will be in good hands.  Good luck!  Stick to the program..  I’ll see you on Monday.  TJ Noonan

TJ’s Boot Camp 

Get the UMT Original (Core) Now While it is Still on the Market Here. 

Get UMT Information here.

Sign up for FREE webinar here.

Sign up for UMT (Cheapest Option) Here

Sing up for UMT (Payment Plan Option) Here 

UMT FX LIVE training has begun and is available.  Download your FREE video trading report, “The Insider’s Guide to Achieving the Trading Edge and find out about Netpicks’ exciting new FX LIVE here.

TF 233 UMT Core Poq Page

eMini Futures Winning, Strategies Posts New Equity Highs Again..

June 8th, 2009

Our eMini Futures strategies keep winning, namely our trading results for the Russell emini and the Nasdaq emini continue to post new highs.  Despite a tough session or two from time to time, our trading has been nearly picture perfect.  Of course we’re going to hit some losses sometimes.  We’ll even have a losing week.  We had a losing month on the S & P last year, despite a trade set up that was winning over 70% of the time up until that point.  Just for fun, I pulled up that old trade set up and looked at a random day, 10 sessions ago.  Together in the trade room we looked at 9 trades.  We spotted one loser!  The other 8?  Winners!!  That just goes to show that IF you stick to the plan, you will succeed. 

Sticking to the plan means NEVER over committing your capital to a trade.  Always stick to the 2% rule.  That is, you should not risk more than 2% of your trade funds on any given trade.  What does that mean, exactly?  The point of entry to the stop loss is what you stand to lose on a trade.  It should not exceed 2% of your trade account.  That is a basic guideline.  For my own trading, I typically apply that to the average risk per trade.  Some trades the set ups might be a little larger.  If so, trade a smaller position on that trade to keep your risk below 2%.  If you do that, you’ll survive the inevitable 1 step back that always comes around.

If you are sticking to the plan, then the tough sessions we had towards the end of May would be water under the bridge right now.  Specks in the rear view mirror.  We are on some serious winning streaks again.  Didn’t I just say that would happen a few posts ago?  I’m looking at my Nasdaq emini results right now.  The last losing trade we took was on June 2nd.  After a 5 trade losing streak, we have now won the last 12 out of 13 trades!

I could say the same thing for the Russell emini trades we’ve been taking.  On the 292 advanced tactics, we won the last 12 out of 14 trades after a tough two sessions.  We hit new equity highs today and are less than 4 points from our first net +100 level!  On the core 233, we won 10 out of the last 14 and are also at new equity highs. 

That’s the theme of what we do.  Don’t freak out over some losing sessions. If you keep your risk where it needs to be, you’ll be at new equity highs soon enough. 

I will be posting all of the 2009 trades called so far, shortly.  Keep your eyes out for them.